There were a number of misperceptions and misstatements in the thread on “Computing NSS Quesstimate” that warrant correction.
First, you need to understand what NSS is.
NSS creates a standard bell curve from grade data of the last 6 months of completers from your squadron. If you know some statistics, it is called a T-score. 50 is ALWAYS average. 1.5 standard deviations from 50 is 35 and 65, which encompasses about 88% of everyone that completes. About 6% of the completers will have an NSS below 35. About 2% will have an NSS below 30. Theoretically, you could have someone below 20 or above 80, but that would statistically only be 0.1% each. So, 1 in 1000 will be below 20 or above 80.
So, NSS is simply a ranking of students in a specific population. It is NOT a measure of the performance of those students. To illustrate, if you had 100 Chuck Yeagers ranked against each other, 6-7 would have an NSS below 35, 6-7 would have an NSS above 65.
Ok, not everyone who completed in the last six months was a Chuck Yeager. So, here’s a more realistic illustration. You are taking a Pass/Fail statistics course. Why? It was either that or a stick in the eye and you made the wrong choice. There are 111 students in the lecture hall on the first day. The professor says that to pass the class, you must score a minimum of 60 on every quiz and test. If you get below a 60 on any one quiz or test, then you fail the course. Doesn’t matter how well you do on all the other quizzes and tests. Fast forward to the end of the semester. 11 students got below a 60 on at least one quiz or test. They failed. Now there’s 100 students remaining, all of whom passed. Now, just for the fun of doing the statistics, the professor will rank all the passing students using a T-score. You averaged an 80 on everything, but it turns out you were at the bottom of your class. You have a T-score (read NSS) of something below 35.
And there’s more. It turns out there was an identical class being taught by another professor. but using the exact same quizzes and tests. Your roommate was in that class and he averaged an 80 just like you. But he was the top of his class, making his NSS somewhere above 65. If you compared your NSS to your roommate’s, you might come to the conclusion that he is a statistics god while you couldn’t sharpen a pencil when, in fact, you both performed exactly the same. Again, NSS is a ranking in a class and says nothing about performance.
Now, let’s dispel some myths.
1. There is no way to calculate a valid NSS until you have completed the syllabus. Why? The key to this is it based on COMPLETERS. If you just finished the Contact Stage, calculated your Score (defined below) and tried to calculate your NSS using ANY formula, you’d get it wrong. That would be like taking a split off your first 100 meters while running a marathon and using that time compared to last year’s finish times to figure out where you placed at the 100 meter point in this marathon. You’ll get a number, but the odds of it being right are pretty close to nil.
Now, if you are within something like 10 events or less of completing, it is possible to come up with a rough approximation. But what is the point of calculating it then? You’re just about done. You’re time will be much better spent either in the books or in a bar.
2. Under the Multi-Service Pilot Training Program (MPTS), there is no such thing as a marginal completer. You either complete or you don’t. As I said, the only thing NSS does is rack and stack completers against each other. It doesn’t say anything about how well each completer performed against Navy performance standards. So, just because you have a low NSS doesn’t mean you suck as an aviator. You’re just at the bottom of those who completed from your squadron in the last six months. If you pass the syllabus, then you have met the Navy requirements towards becoming a Naval Aviator. Those who didn’t meet Navy standards did not complete and did not get an NSS.
Here's a riddle. What do they call a flight student who is at the bottom of his winging class? Answer: A Naval Aviator.
There is one caveat to my last statement. MPTS requires students to actually exceed some performance standards. Much like when you take the PRT, if you meet the minimum in each category, then you still fail the PRT. The same thing works with MPTS. If all you do is just meet MIF at the end of each block, then you really haven’t met the minimum Navy standards. I quote, “Students who consistently perform at the absolute minimum standard through multiple stages may not possess the skills required to complete follow-on training. MIF is designed to allow for minimum performance in a specific area with the understanding that performance above the minimum MIF will offset the weak area.” To ensure you have met the minimum standards, if you complete with less than a 35 NSS, you will be looked at a second time by your command just to make sure that you really do have what it takes to be a Naval aviator.
3. Under MPTS, maneuvers are not graded average, above, or below. Instead, you receive numerical grades (2-5) on each maneuver based on your performance against defined performance standards. This is important to understand and appreciate. If you want to know how you are doing, look at your grades compared to MIF. If you are meeting MIF, you are passing the program. Notice I didn’t say anything about whether you are doing better or worse than anyone else in your class. That doesn’t matter. In that Pass/Fail statistics course, if you were getting 95% on every quiz and test, you’d be thrilled. You wouldn’t care if everyone else was getting 100% and you were the bottom of the class. You’re still passing the course. If you were getting 60% on every quiz and test, then you should be worried, even if you were #1 in your class.
Rather than worry about how you are doing against your classmates, you should worry about how you are doing against those defined performance standards. If you only make MIF on the last flight of every block, then you are barely getting by. Seek out help from IPs and other students.
Perhaps you’re the guy who is obsessed with getting jets and you need to know every second how you rank. Sorry, I’ve got no help for you and neither does the Navy. You’ll never know your NSS until you’re done. And, honestly, it won’t really matter anyway. As someone mentioned, selection is more about timing than grades. If the Navy doesn’t need another jet student, then you won’t go jets. The first criteria in selection is needs of the Navy/Marine Corps/Coast Guard/Air Force. Get used to it. You’re life is controlled by that phrase as long as you wear the uniform.
4. There is no squadron multiplier that adjusts NSS. No one has points taken off or added to their NSS because of the squadron they are in or for any other reason, for that matter. As I mentioned, NSS uses the previous 6 months of completers from your squadron. While in my statistics class example, there was a wide variation between your roommate's and your classes, the variation between Primary VT squadrons is very small. It is certainly likely, though, that two students from different squadrons completing at the same time could have the same score (score is defined below) but a slightly different NSS. This is because there may be a slight variation in grade standardization between IPs in each squadron.
5. The formula that was provided (NSS=400*(ratio)-400) isn’t even close to how NSS is calculated. It is possible that it will work to some degree for some people who are done or close to done. It probably works pretty well for those near average (50 NSS) but not so much as you get further away from average. And for those people it will probably only work for a little while, maybe a year. Until you get your official NSS, though, you won’t know if it worked right for you.
More importantly, as I mentioned at the top of this thread, the formula has no basis in validity for anyone who has not completed the syllabus. You will have as much accuracy using a random number generator.
The true formula is no secret. For those in a Navy command (not at Vance or Randolf) it is part of the training curriculum guide handed out to every student. Sorry, I don’t know the USAF formula. In the syllabus guide, it is called PAS, which is NSS. The formula is:
PAS=.9[50+10(S-M1)/S1] + .1[50+10(M2-TGI)/S2]
S - Student’s Score: Sum of student’s grades for gradable maneuvers in the aircraft and simulator divided by the sum of the MIF for those maneuvers.
M1 – Average Score
M2 – Average Total Graded Items (TGI)
S1 – Standard Deviation Score
S2 – Standard Deviation of TGI
Average Score, Average TGI, and the standard deviation of each are calculated each month. It uses a minimum of 60 previous completers or the last 6 months of completers, whichever is more.
So, if you really want to compute your own NSS, you need to know M1, M2, S1, and S2 for your squadron during the month you select since those numbers change every month. Notice I said the month you select, not the month you complete. Do you really want to spend that much time on this?
6. Lastly, there a rumor that a lower TGI will boost your Score. Not necessarily true. In some cases it will. In some cases it won't. Generally speaking, getting no grade is better than getting below MIF while getting above MIF is better than getting no grade. BUT, be careful when you ask to not fly maneuvers in order to keep your TGI lower. Flying is a perishable skill. If you don't practice a maneuver, you have a more likely chance of boning it up when it counts most. Better to practice and get good at it than not practice in order to attempt some mythical grade manipulation.
Those are the facts for those who care.
Last edited by Crowbar; 02-11-2007 at 09:03 PM. Reason: modified at Heloanjin's request
What you need to know about NSS:
You have no control over it.
Have a blast in training, do your best, don't get hung up on grades, don't be a douche, and for god sakes drink your liver stupid. Then one day, when gold wings adorne your chest, be thankful that uncle sam pays you to do something most people only dream of experiencing.
^ That advice worked for me.
Why do Pcola/Milton drivers suck so much?
That advice works in just about any situation.
Great first post. Very informative. Unfortunately, as you no doubt know from your experience w/ studs, it falls on deaf ears. After the last two weeks, I am honestly sick of hearing about NSSessess from studs.Originally Posted by Heloanjin
Very informative first post. And as you said There is no way to calculate a valid NSS until you have completed the syllabus, but if
you Know anybody who has selected recently and know what their final MIF ratio and actual NSS is, You can Know how you´re doing. For this reason I think it´s really helpful if people recently selected can share his ratio and final Nss.
And I am almost sure that If you have a ratio of 1.135 you are gonna be above 50 in any week..
And you still won't have a damn clue how you rank amongst the rest of the studs finishing across the country, or what's even available. Quit getting so wrapped up about it.
Single Seat, it's like talking to a wall. Save your energy.
I know you can´t compare your ratio with people who have finished their cross country, but it will give you a clue, of which final ratio you need to be above 50.
As everybody says, you have to do your best in each flight but ...
BI´s give you really high ratios, Fams: if you do well you will be on the money, in PAs Mifs are high, and your ratio will decrease, Forms are tough but mifs are low. At this point you have to have a high ratio because in RIs your ratio is gonna decrease a lot, in the first two block of sims, it´s not bad but mifs start increasing and in the last block of flights all are fours and you will have low ratios in each flight.
Last week 50 was around 1.115 but there are weeks that 50 is around 1.13. You have to try to finish with 1.135, if you don´t it will depend on how lucky you are.
Hope this helps.
You need to get over the whole NSS thing and go get drunk at the Bama while you still can. Enjoy Primary and let the chips fall where they may. Goddamn son.
What'd I tell ya?
Now I feel bad for telling the detailer I wanted VT-land. Thanks for the inputs, however late they are.
I have no question that what you say is 100% correct, but why do they tell us our projected NSS at the end of cruise forms? It doesn't make alot of sense to me. They gave me a number but then everyone I've talked to has said this number will go down 5-10 points. How do they even get the number in the first place if NSS is only for completers?
I dunno. VT-6 didn't do any of that crap. There was a sign posted in the office that said "If you have to ask what your NSS is, it's 25. Worry about your next flight."
The spread of evil is the symptom of a vacuum. whenever evil wins, it is only by default: by the moral failure of those who evade the fact that there can be no compromise on basic principles.
Priceless
Why do you get a tentative NSS before you're done? Because the Navy is addicted to NSS. Everyone thinks it says something about quality of performance. Plus, just about every student fixates on what their NSS is going to be.
So, the squadron tries to ease your apprehensions by giving you a look at what might be. With only a few flights left to go, your Score isn't likely to change much. And if you are selecting any week other then the first week of the month, the population you are compared to will not change. Even if you are selecting the first week of the month, the population change isn't likely to be very dramatic. So, why not? The tentative NSS you get is usually plus or minus 5. Good enough, right?
Of course, if you've just gotta have jets and you're told you have a 52 before you're done, you may be in for a big fall when your actual comes in under 50. Or maybe you're given a tentative of 48 and you don't put jets down as a choice since you don't have jet grades, but then your final is 52, you may think you just got hosed. When, in fact you hosed yourself because you worried too much about a number that DOESN"T MEAN A THING as far as being a Naval Aviator is concerned.
I say this as much for IPs, COs and fleet aviators as I do for students.
It has been evaluated, and it was determined that the NSS needs to go away. The hold up, you ask? TW-1 (and maybe the K-rock guys). They drug their feet for so long that they hadn't switched to the MIF system. It's supposed to happen "soon," and then NSS will go away.All in all, in the Navy if you get jets, you earned them by your flying.
In the Air Force...notsomuch...But I still think the combination of th MIF and NSS systems needs to be reevaluated.
( I was trained on both...Above/Below as an SNFO...MIF as an SNA)
As for all your anecdotes about NSS' failings, you're combining stories. Yes, it's dumb that you can complete, but not advance. I agree, a failing of the NSS system, but talking about how AF guys can go on may not be that simple. Some may even be Guard guys. But I'm sure you probably know their ridiculous deal.
As an interesting side note... Statistically (read that again, "statistically") low 50s NSS out of Primary have a hard time completing Jet advanced. No doubt there will be plenty of people who just HAVE to tell me that that's not true because they made it through. Congrats, bully for you. But historically, it's true.
OK, my example wasn't that good. But I haven't heard any good reasons to provide an NSS before completing, either.
MIF isn't a hybrid USAF/USN system. Yes, the Navy saw how the Air Force was doing it, but the Air Force got the idea from the civilian world. It has been around for a very long time. And, if an IP is trying to grade like an above/below system, they are doing it wrong. I know, many IPs grade that way because that's the way they trained and they are too lazy to learn the proper methodolgy.
MPTS and NSS are not incompatible. MPTS provides a measure of your performance against objective criteria. NSS simply provides a ranking. What is incompatible is using NSS as a measure of performance. Particularly since NSS can't measure performance.
However, that being said,
Prior to MPTS, any student with less than a 35 NSS was attrited. Waivers could be granted on a case by case basis. From the time MPTS was instituted to sometime in 2006, every student who finished Primary went on to Advanced. There was no minimum NSS. But there were a few students who should not have continued. Just ask the HT IPs who tried to train them. So, to improve the screening, a Command Assessment was established.
In this case, NSS is only used as a trip wire for a Command Assessment. It wasn't an NSS below 30 that attrited the 3 students. It was because, in the opinion of the command, they were just barely meeting MIF in all areas and that isn't good enough. Unfortunately, the students were done a diservice by the IPs who wrote only good comments on their grade sheets. Or the command didn't understand that the low NSS didn't necessarily mean substandard performance. If that was the case, then shame on the Navy. Besides the blow to the students, it costs the Navy way to much to recruit and train through Primary and then toss aside aviators simply because they had a low ranking. Or, perhaps the debriefs and grade sheets did say it all but the students figured that since they passed each flight that was good enough.
I doubt that NSS, or a version of it, will ever go away. Why? Because the Navy needs a statistically reliable way to objectively rank students. Back when we got aboves and belows, NSS did EXACTLY the same thing it does now. It just seemed different because everyone knew how many net aboves you needed to clear a 35 NSS. At least we thought we did. There were many cases when a command experienced a spiraling NSS. This happened when IPs would identify a student or students just below the cutoff and then hand out a couple more aboves to clear the 35 NSS hurdle. The following month the minimum number of net aboves would creep up by one or two and the cycle would continue.
NSS isn't evil. Its what we try to do with it that makes it bad. Kind of like taquilla.
So why use an unneccesarily complicated system like NSS...use raw score. How is a ratio of your performance to MIF anything other than objective and statistically reliable. You still haven't explained the need for further contrivances.I doubt that NSS, or a version of it, will ever go away. Why? Because the Navy needs a statistically reliable way to objectively rank students.
Democracy is a sheep and two wolves discussing what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well armed sheep contesting the vote.
Because then they can't take grading trends into effect. Some squadrons (cough cough 28) grade easier than others.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks