Why HUMINT Isn't All It's Cracked Up to Be...

[FlyinSpy]

Good piece in then LA Times today about CURVEBALL, the Iraqi defector who's reporting on alleged Iraqi biological warfare programs was cited extensively as a key element of the case for war. HUMINT is great when it's factual and accurate, not so much otherwise - the real trick is telling the difference. In this case, the guy seems like a Grade A Loser-Boy.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-na-curveball18-2008jun18,0,5268366.story

 

[Xtndr50boom]

I just watched the PBS Frontline documentary on the build-up, prosecution, and after-effects of OIF called "Bush's War". Spent about 15 minutes talking about curveball and how the SECDEF and CIA refused to call shennanigans on his BS because his "intel" fit right into the White House's deck of cards. Pretty enlightening to say the least.

HIGHLY recommend the series to anyone wondering how we could have screwed the pooch so badly

 

[Flash]

Yeah, listening to one of the Intel O's I work with talk about how they would meet up with a contact, who would often along with a 'boy....friend', then pay him off for info. I guess he needed some way to pay for his fix......

Kind of a turn off to the business when you realize some of the scum you have to deal with in that world.

 

[fusu]

as always, thanks a ton flyin spy for the insights.

 

[Pugs]

Kind of a turn off to the business when you realize some of the scum you have to deal with in that world.

But some of the scum are the people who know the other scum we care about. Unfortunately the HUMINT effort was so small it had a built in bias. If we had lots of people doing HUMINT with lots of sources it would be somewhat self balancing. f this is combined by the all-source agencies with the input of the other ints you can build a complete picture.

There are issues with who then puts that complete picture together and how it gets presented to the people who take action and the additional bias layer that's a another topic I think.

 

[freshy]

HIGHLY recommend the series to anyone wondering how we could have screwed the pooch so badly

Whatever your view on the current conflict in Iraq...Saddam (and his regime) had to go down. He alone was a weapon of mass destruction, not to mention his two mentally insane sons.

Remember, he did use nerve gas or some shit like that on his own Kurdish citizens in the north???

Don't let the pot smoking, stinky ass-hippie, left wing, liberal media brain wash you. Its not like our government made the choice to invade Iraq based off of one single person's intel. If his intel was that good...I doubt he would need to be working at Mickey-D's.

If you feel that serving your country in Iraq is screwing the pooch, then either shut your mouth....or choose a different line of work.

 

[mmx1]

Whatever your view on the current conflict in Iraq...Saddam (and his regime) had to go down. He alone was a weapon of mass destruction, not to mention his two mentally insane sons.

Remember, he did use nerve gas or some shit like that on his own Kurdish citizens in the north???

Don't let the pot smoking, stinky ass-hippie, left wing, liberal media brain wash you. Its not like our government made the choice to invade Iraq based off of one single person's intel. If his intel was that good...I doubt he would need to be working at Mickey-D's.

If you feel that serving your country in Iraq is screwing the pooch, then either shut your mouth....or choose a different line of work.

So the ends justified the means? The intelligence was shoddy and there was willful suspension of disbelief in accepting that intelligence. Curveball's intelligence was heavily relied upon to make the case for going to war, since there was really very few other claims of active WMD programs, and in doing so they overlooked serious questions of his credibility.

We did screw the pooch in many ways. Admitting as much is not the same as agreeing with those that call for a retreat. It's very sad that in the current political climate, it's treated as such, but at least between officers we should be able to share an honest, no-shit assessment without being branded as a left-wing, anti-war hippie.

 

[Brett327]

Whatever your view on the current conflict in Iraq...Saddam (and his regime) had to go down. He alone was a weapon of mass destruction, not to mention his two mentally insane sons.

Remember, he did use nerve gas or some shit like that on his own Kurdish citizens in the north???

Don't let the pot smoking, stinky ass-hippie, left wing, liberal media brain wash you. Its not like our government made the choice to invade Iraq based off of one single person's intel. If his intel was that good...I doubt he would need to be working at Mickey-D's.

If you feel that serving your country in Iraq is screwing the pooch, then either shut your mouth....or choose a different line of work.

You can put the Kool-Aid down now. Regardless of what the results of the war have been, goods bads and others, putting the blinders on to the many shortcomings we've seen along the way does you as a warfighter, and the administration a disservice. You can't learn from your mistakes if you don't own up to them.

Brett

 

[Zissou]

Yeah, listening to one of the Intel O's I work with talk about how they would meet up with a contact, who would often along with a 'boy....friend', then pay him off for info. I guess he needed some way to pay for his fix......

Kind of a turn off to the business when you realize some of the scum you have to deal with in that world.

The mission of humint sourcing and exploitation could be renamed "scumbag scuttlebutt management".

Of the three reasons people betray the trust of their nation and comrades, none of them are respectable. You are going to deal with people who's character is broken from the bottom up.

If you have hopes of delivering a quality intel product you need to cultivate deep and wide. For every source who provides information of interest you will need five sources who's only purpose will be testing the character of your source of interest. Find out how deceptive he is, we already know he is a scumbag.

From what little I know, HUMINT on the ground is not for anyone who cant smile and hug a murderer if its in the best interest of the big picture.

On the topic of CURVEBALL, it seems to be a case of higher authority shopping for the Intel product the wanted. If you seek the answer, you will find them, and choose the one you like best.

 

[LazersGoPEWPEW]

The mission of humint sourcing and exploitation could be renamed "scumbag scuttlebutt management".

Of the three reasons people betray the trust of their nation and comrades, none of them are respectable. You are going to deal with people who's character is broken from the bottom up.

If you have hopes of delivering a quality intel product you need to cultivate deep and wide. For every source who provides information of interest you will need five sources who's only purpose will be testing the character of your source of interest. Find out how deceptive he is, we already know he is a scumbag.

From what little I know, HUMINT on the ground is not for anyone who cant smile and hug a murderer if its in the best interest of the big picture.

On the topic of CURVEBALL, it seems to be a case of higher authority shopping for the Intel product the wanted. Its the nature of the beast. That's always a bad idea.

Excellent. You always have to have some sort of accountability of HUMINT sources in order for them to be capable of maximum effectiveness. You may get lucky and get an honest source all the time who always has the right information but it's still important to have that accountability just in case he/she has a change of heart.

 

[freshy]

You can put the Kool-Aid down now. Regardless of what the results of the war have been, goods bads and others, putting the blinders on to the many shortcomings we've seen along the way does you as a warfighter, and the administration a disservice. You can't learn from your mistakes if you don't own up to them.

Brett

I agree. We shouldn't ignore our mistakes and short comings. However we need to be careful and not shove them in the face of our warfighters and distract them from seeing all the good we're doing over there. Which is the focus of liberal media. Leave it to them to be waiting like a dog drooling for scraps at the dinner table...just to see a service member "screw up". Some say "screw up"...some say "doing your job correctly".

Besides, its not us as warfighters that made any huge mistakes...I think we all know we kicked the shit out of Saddam's conventional (and non conventional) forces. Not to mention the Taliban in OEF. If anyone needs to learn from thier mistakes...it is not "us" (meaning those that do the trigger pulling) as warfighters.

It is the liberal media doing a great disservice to our warfighters and administration...always so quick to point out the shortcomings and NEVER giving credit when credit is due. They don't deserve the freedom of speech that they take for granted.

 

[freshy]

......between officers we should be able to share an honest, no-shit assessment without being branded as a left-wing, anti-war hippie.

I never branded anyone as being such (left wing), but if the shoe fits....I just claim that too many people pay too much mind to them.

 

[Flash]

Besides, its not us as warfighters that made any huge mistakes...I think we all know we kicked the shit out of Saddam's conventional (and non conventional) forces. Not to mention the Taliban in OEF. If anyone needs to learn from thier mistakes...it is not "us" (meaning those that do the trigger pulling) as warfighters.

They don't deserve the freedom of speech that they take for granted.

The failure to close off Tora Bora in Dec 2001, and to some degree the failure to stop the looting after the fall of Baghdad, can be attributed to the military leadership involved in the operations. We have, by no means, been infallible recently.

Pretty bold statement, especially when the freedom of the press is guaranteed by the First Amendment in our Constitution. You ought to crack open a few more newspapers too, you might be surprised at what you find inside.

 

[Xtndr50boom]

Don't let the pot smoking, stinky ass-hippie, left wing, liberal media brain wash you. Its not like our government made the choice to invade Iraq based off of one single person's intel. If his intel was that good...I doubt he would need to be working at Mickey-D's.

If you feel that serving your country in Iraq is screwing the pooch, then either shut your mouth....or choose a different line of work.

Easy there. Don't get fresh )). All I said was the intel the US used as evidence for going into Iraq was deeply flawed: When you trust the evidence given by a spy the Germans labeled "unreliable" (hence; curveball) because it was corroborated by the INC, you're way behind the 8-ball and just fishing for reasons to go in. Our intel going in there was crap. Plain and simple. From the half-assed NIE to the majority of what the DoD and later on, the DoS used to justify the invasion... sucked

Being able to admit the facts doesn't mean I'm a pot smoking, showered once last year, impeach the president, hippie. It means I can look at what happened dispassionately, and say "yep, we should've done that alot better".

Should we have gone in? That's a question for the history books. But we did (on bad intel), and now we have to deal with it

 

[Brett327]

I agree. We shouldn't ignore our mistakes and short comings. However we need to be careful and not shove them in the face of our warfighters and distract them from seeing all the good we're doing over there. Which is the focus of liberal media. Leave it to them to be waiting like a dog drooling for scraps at the dinner table...just to see a service member "screw up". Some say "screw up"...some say "doing your job correctly".

Besides, its not us as warfighters that made any huge mistakes...I think we all know we kicked the shit out of Saddam's conventional (and non conventional) forces. Not to mention the Taliban in OEF. If anyone needs to learn from thier mistakes...it is not "us" (meaning those that do the trigger pulling) as warfighters.

It is the liberal media doing a great disservice to our warfighters and administration...always so quick to point out the shortcomings and NEVER giving credit when credit is due. They don't deserve the freedom of speech that they take for granted.

Now you can put down the Neo-Con talking points. We're all big boys WRT the war and how it's going, so I don't think any of us need any coddling or kid glove treatment. It's not the troops who need to see "all the good things we're doing," but the American public. You need to see the media for what it is - a business based on advertising revenue which is driven by ratings. The media will do whatever it needs to do to ensure those high ratings, so it ought not be a surprise to you that they focus on the sensational. To expect anything else is naive, so you need to stop blaming them for what they naturally do. Finally, if you don't think that there were HUGE errors in judgment, planning and execution at all levels of the military in this conflict, you need to switch off FNC and hit the books. You've got a lot of learning ahead of you.

Taking your blinders off and questioning the manner in which this war has been executed doesn't make you a liberal, it makes you a smart war-fighter who exercises some critical thinking skills. You owe your country that much.

Brett