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[Hair Warrior]

China flies 19 nuke jets into Taiwan air space for 'WW3 invasion' war games

WORLD War Three fears are mounting after China flew 19 nuke bombers and fighter jets into Taiwan air space for “invasion” war games. The latest Chinese military incursion on Sunday invo…

www.the-sun.com

^ I can’t tell from the (poorly written) article whether the PLAAF went inside Taiwan’s 12nm airspace, or just their ADIZ beyond 12nm. Anyone got a better article?

 

[Randy Daytona]

Happened upon this thread from by Neil Thomas who is a China analyst at the Eurasia Group. Seems to be quite the turnover in the high ranks of China’s military this month.

Unusual personnel changes afoot in China's People's Liberation Army. Xi Jinping today held a ceremony for 5 PLA rising stars promoted to top General rank & given new roles. New commanders for Xinjiang/Tibet/India, Beijing, Navy, Air Force, Defense Uni

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1434937228271226888

 

[Flash]

Happened upon this thread from by Neil Thomas who is a China analyst at the Eurasia Group. Seems to be quite the turnover in the high ranks of China’s military this month.

Unusual personnel changes afoot in China's People's Liberation Army. Xi Jinping today held a ceremony for 5 PLA rising stars promoted to top General rank & given new roles. New commanders for Xinjiang/Tibet/India, Beijing, Navy, Air Force, Defense Uni

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1434937228271226888

Is that really unusual or just a standard rotation? Even if it is ‘unusual’ given that Xi is ‘running’ for an unprecedented 3rd term next year it shouldn’t be surprising that he wants his men in key positions of the party’s army.

 

[wink]

Even if it is ‘unusual’ given that Xi is ‘running’ for an unprecedented 3rd term next year it shouldn’t be surprising that he wants his men in key positions of the party’s army.

So you are saying that just short of completing a second term he does not have HIS key men in the party's army? If something has kept him from placing his own people in position all this time, what has changed? He has been in power for about 9 years and the term limits were removed in 2018.

 

[Flash]

So you are saying that just short of completing a second term he does not have HIS key men in the party's army? If something has kept him from placing his own people in position all this time, what has changed? He has been in power for about 9 years and the term limits were removed in 2018.

Maybe he does or maybe he doesn’t, certainly by now some of those folks owe far more loyalty to Xi than ones that held important commands even 5 years ago due to his time in power and his control over the military.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Putin and Xi are tsar and emperor for life. The only reason they don’t admit it is to play charades with the West. But everyone in Russia and China knows what’s up.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Is that really unusual or just a standard rotation? Even if it is ‘unusual’ given that Xi is ‘running’ for an unprecedented 3rd term next year it shouldn’t be surprising that he wants his men in key positions of the party’s army.

I dunno - it just struck me as odd that he was replacing so many top generals all at once - at the same time as he is cracking down on the top levels of Chinese society and redistributing wealth. Thought I would throw the question out to you, Wink and some of the others here grounded in international relations and history to see what y’all thought.

 

[Griz882]

Xi is facing a remarkable problem. He used the levers of capitalism to advance his nation but in doing so he created the most dangerous thing in the world…a middle class. China is fast approaching a point where it can’t continue to build empty infrastructure simply to keep its new middle class in good standing. Trump tariffs and the global shift to competitive markets in places like India and Vietnam are having an impact. I wouldn’t be surprised if Xi is strengthening his control of the military to either prevent a coup or stop a revolution - and keep in mind that the only successful revolutions are supported not by the poor, but the merchant/middle class.

Now, I am not implying either is just around the corner, maybe years away, but the issues are real.

 

[Hair Warrior]

I’m no China expert, but it would seem to me that Xi can reliably subdue the middle by co-opting and leveraging the billionaire class, e.g. Jack Ma’s re-education. Digital surveillance and social credit scoring is another tool at Xi’s disposal.

 

[Flash]

I dunno - it just struck me as odd that he was replacing so many top generals all at once - at the same time as he is cracking down on the top levels of Chinese society and redistributing wealth. Thought I would throw the question out to you, Wink and some of the others here grounded in international relations and history to see what y’all thought.

Wholesale military leadership changes are actually a pretty regular thing in many foreign militaries, sometimes with an the entire top leadership slate changing with a new government or time in position like we do here but all at once and not staggered like our service chiefs and JCS leadership. Even factors like what academy class year the new and old leadership is can be a major factor in some countries. China's military leadership structure is also not analogous to ours either with some folks in equivalent positions to ours being much more or less important in China, a PLA 'service chief' ≠ a US service chief and so on.

While the original twitter-er is a China expert I am not sure that these leadership changes he highlights are all that significant since the party leadership is still the ultimate decision makers, Xi in particular now.

 

[Griz882]

I’m no China expert, but it would seem to me that Xi can reliably subdue the middle by co-opting and leveraging the billionaire class, e.g. Jack Ma’s re-education. Digital surveillance and social credit scoring is another tool at Xi’s disposal.

The billionaire class need the middle class more than Xi.

 

[Jim123]

Wholesale military leadership changes are actually a pretty regular thing in many foreign militaries, sometimes with an the entire top leadership slate changing with a new government or time in position like we do here but all at once and not staggered like our service chiefs and JCS leadership.

What you're describing sounds somewhat analogous to wholesale service secretary-undersecretary replacements that happen with our own new administrations.

In uniform vs in a suit for those roles might seem like a key difference but in the big picture of "government > military" and how different countries realize that relationship, I can see this not being a big leap of logic compared to how we organize the highest echelons or our own armed services. After all, we salute certain civilians in our chain of command and right below that is some gray area where FOGOs and SES overlap.

Just looking at it in a way that rationalizes things a bit, not trying to justify it or offer an opinion if it's "good" or "bad."

 

[Hair Warrior]

The billionaire class need the middle class more than Xi.

Sure… unless and until they’re imprisoned by the regime. Then they’ll do whatever it takes to survive and see their family again.

 

[wink]

...the party leadership is still the ultimate decision makers, Xi in particular now.

Sure, and Stalin took his lead from the politburo. Xi is the absolute leader of the party. Members of the Party in communist countries usually do not step out of line with the Chairman's vision for the Party and country. Xi is possibly the strongest party Chairman in a very long time.

 

[nittany03]

While the original twitter-er is a China expert I am not sure that these leadership changes he highlights are all that significant since the party leadership is still the ultimate decision makers, Xi in particular now.

"Every Communist must grasp the truth, 'Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.' Our principle is that the Party commands the gun, and the gun must never be allowed to command the Party. "
-Mao Zedong