NEWS KNQX Hurrevac

[ChuckMK23]

Activated.

VFC-111 had 15 of 17 of their F-5's depart for points north. Only 1 of the 2 SAR helos was up - it's on the way north as well.

This is going to be interesting. Thinking about all you AW's in Florida - @webmaster included!

"Hurricane Irma becomes the most powerful storm ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean"

 

[Randy Daytona]

For everybody watching Hurricane Irma, www.spaghettimodels.com is 1 stop shopping for a lot of different weather models (US predictions, Euro weather, etc). And for those considering a hurricane party, remember that SUSTAINED 185 mph wind is equivalent to an F-3 tornado and those 225 MPH gusts are equal to a F-4 tornado. (Pictures here for comparison http://www.shorstmeyer.com/tornadoes/fpp.html )

Get you and your family to safety.

 

[Ken_gone_flying]

I just flew HSC-28 back to Norfolk yesterday. They were working out of College Station supporting Houston after Harvey. the plans are already in place to send them to Florida after Irma.

 

[HackerF15E]

Anyone evac'ing to NQA?

There are some CBP P-3s and Guard Herks on the ramp as of yesterday, but that's about it.

 

[Gatordev]

I had the most frustrating phone call with the KNBC base Ops NCO today. I sensed he lacked vision.

Meanwhile the KNFW Base OpsO took about 5 seconds to understand what a "COA" is and how he might be able to help (which he did)

Oh well.

 

[nittany03]

For everybody watching Hurricane Irma, www.spaghettimodels.com is 1 stop shopping for a lot of different weather models (US predictions, Euro weather, etc). And for those considering a hurricane party, remember that SUSTAINED 185 mph wind is equivalent to an F-3 tornado and those 225 MPH gusts are equal to a F-4 tornado. (Pictures here for comparison http://www.shorstmeyer.com/tornadoes/fpp.html )

Get you and your family to safety.

Some more context in which a meteorologist rants about the misuse of spaghetti plots. TL; DR, not all models are created equal.

Please, Please Stop Sharing Spaghetti Plots of Hurricane Models

 

[insanebikerboy]

Some more context in which a meteorologist rants about the misuse of spaghetti plots. TL; DR, not all models are created equal.

Please, Please Stop Sharing Spaghetti Plots of Hurricane Models

The irony is that a meteorologist is ranting about mathematical predictions. Spaghetti models of natural motion are actually pretty accurate when you take the average of them. That's the whole idea behind having multiple variations of spaghetti models in the first place. If you drew a big black line right up the middle of the models on the picture he posted, then you get pretty close to where the hurricane is currently moving.

Now, if you were to pick one model out of that picture and say it's the most accurate over the others, well, then this dude can probably say which would be the best to look at.

 

[nittany03]

The irony is that a meteorologist is ranting about mathematical predictions. Spaghetti models of natural motion are actually pretty accurate when you take the average of them. That's the whole idea behind having multiple variations of spaghetti models in the first place. If you drew a big black line right up the middle of the models on the picture he posted, then you get pretty close to where the hurricane is currently moving.

Now, if you were to pick one model out of that picture and say it's the most accurate over the others, well, then this dude can probably say which would be the best to look at.

What he's saying is that the spaghetti plot is a visual fallacy, because not all of those lines are equally accurate. In other words, you can't average out all the spaghetti and come up with an forecast without weighting the models according to their validity and credibility. Specifically, he mentioned a few in Silver's diagram that, in his professional opinion, are useless.

So betting your life that the storm is most likely going to track in the middle of the spaghetti is not wise. It's not ironic for a meteorologist to explain how to use mathematical predictions correctly if they see them being misused. Especially if misunderstandings could cost lives by playing into people's evacuation decisions.

 

[jtmedli]

I just flew HSC-28 back to Norfolk yesterday. They were working out of College Station supporting Houston after Harvey. the plans are already in place to send them to Florida after Irma.

I'm getting on the boat soon to head down there. There are quite a few squadrons and ships standing by to move in after Irma goes through.

...and here I am thinking I was on shore duty...

 

[Brett327]

...and here I am thinking I was on shore duty...

Hopefully, you can use some of that talent as an aviator to make a difference to someone in need.

 

[sickboy]

I'm getting on the boat soon to head down there. There are quite a few squadrons and ships standing by to move in after Irma goes through.

...and here I am thinking I was on shore duty...

Screw it. I'll trade with you.

 

[xj220]

Hopefully, you can use some of that talent as an aviator to make a difference to someone in need.

Hell, I'd volunteer to do that if they needed pilots.

 

[xj220]

Any word on the FL bases and how they fared? It sounds like Jax got hit really hard by flooding but Key West wasn't as bad as expected.

 

[Gatordev]

Any word on the FL bases and how they fared? It sounds like Jax got hit really hard by flooding but Key West wasn't as bad as expected.

It's going to take a bit of time to get both Jax bases up, but apparently not a huge amount. With a potential DSCA package potentially needing to come through, other plans are in motion.

I'm just happy that both my cell data and my power came up within 2 hours of each other...two nights in darkness is just medieval.

 

[xj220]

two nights in darkness is just medieval.

Damn, you the real MVP. I saw the flooding in Jax, is KNIP flooded or just debris? I'm hoping to get down there in a week or so but if they're not open then I guess that won't be happening.