FY-15 ADHSB

[Mumbles]

I don't have any stats to back up the exodus theory (which I don't necessarily discount), but I'd love to see them if you do.

This... from Capt. "She-boy" (great American!)

To the "Battle Hardened" LTs of Airwarriors:


NAE Leadership,
We are just under three months remaining on the "window" for our aviators to complete consideration for applying for what commonly has been called the department head bonus. First some good news:
- We have instituted a new concept to incentivize "early takers" and to eliminate the "casino game" feel of the Aviation Department Head Retention Bonus (ADHRB) in recent years. Officers who sign a contract in their early year--meaning in the FY prior to their MSR expiration year--are guaranteed to receive the higher rate if their community is offered a higher amount in their
second (and final) year of ADHRB eligibility (the MSR year). Eligible
officers need to understand that there is NO LONGER ANY REASON NOT TO SIGN UP FOR THE ADHRB EARLY, besides the obvious--genuine desire not to be a department head.
- For the FY14 ACCP program we are able to increase the bonus offering to three communities: VAW/VRC pilot (100K to 125K); VP pilot (50K to 75K); and VFA NFO (25K to 75K). All other communities are offered the same amount as in FY13.
- If an officer elects to take the ADHRB and subsequently 2 x fails of select for DH, we will stop payments and not recoup the "earned" portion of the ACCP.
Unfortunately this year's program was hung up in budget deliberations until late April, meaning that our eligible officers only have a four-month window to make their decisions and submit their applications. As such we have gotten off to a predictably slow start. On our current glidepath, we will come up well short of contract objective. A few items complicate the ACCP picture and have driven me to solicit your help with aviators on the attached list.
- The officers who entered service during our 8-year under accession period
(2005-2012) are now moving through their ADHRB eligibility window (this year's "critical year groups" for the ADHRB are YG04 and YG05 for pilots and YG06 and
YG07 for NFOs--the difference being due to the 8 year pilot winging MSR vs.
the 6 year NFO winging MSR) . When we start with lower accessions and apply the retention math and take-rate math, we show we need to keep almost 100% of the current populations of some communities to have DH selectivity.
- The statutory selection rates for LCDR have been extremely low. In the past the low rate has been mitigated by selection numbers adequate to maintain DH selectivity. This past year's LCDR selection rate and selection numbers were below what we need for DH selectivity we have enjoyed in previous years. The current FY14 ACCP will obligate officers for future year's ADHSB, not for the board convening in a few weeks.
- ACCP is our sole means to predict DH populations across the T/M/S and designators. This prediction is key to properly man the fleet and adjust the spigot for ACCP allocations.
- Rotary take rates have masked tacair take rates. While this year's take rate percentage parallels last year's, the population we need (tacair) is not stepping forward. Probably too soon to tell if this is true again in FY14.
Right now we have 25 VFA pilot takers vs 14 HSC and 20 HSM takers.
The detailers have approached their constituents and behavior has not resulted in more contracts. I ask that you cull the appropriate attached worksheet, and engage your commands where appropriate, and strongly encourage our battle-tested LTs to take the retention pay. Just as important, if they cannot be compelled by your engagement, then feed the majority reasons back to me on why they opt-out of the pay. Naval aviation remains the flexible, forward component of our national strategy, and we need these senior LTs/junior LCDRs to stay on the NAE team. Thanks for helping us in this 9th inning effort.
Vr Kenny
PS: The attached list is sortable by designator and by community, as well as by current command. Every name on the list is eligible and has not taken the retention pay. Only exceptions are those who have submitted contract applications in the last couple of days, after this list was compiled.
Link to the ACCP website is:
http://www.public.navy.mil/bupers-npc/o ... /ACCP.aspx
CAPT Kenny Whitesell
Director, Aviation Officer Distribution (PERS 43)

 

[Brett327]

^^ Interesting stuff. Whitesell was here in DC briefing the JS a few months ago on this. Sounds more dire than it was portrayed then to the masses.

 

[Mumbles]

fuck it... I'm a contract King Air pilot now.

 

[Mumbles]

and I kept the $$$

 

[Pags]

As I understand it, the O-4 board occurred a few months ago, while the DH board started and finished last week. As you all know, it takes a while for the statuatory board results to make their way through the system, culminating in Senate Confirmation -- although they announce the results once SECNAV or SECDEF (can't remember) sign off on them.

I would imagine that anybody selected for the administrative DH board that hadn't "officially" screened for O-4 last year is sitting on a list in someones office waiting for a signature, and will put on O-4 in FY15.

Interesting stats to note about this years board compared to last years:

54 VFA 1310s screened OP this year (for FY15)
12 VFA 1320s screened OP this year (for FY15)
ZERO VFA screened OP-T this year (for FY15)

72 VFA 1310s screened OP last year (for FY14)
15 VFA 1320s screened OP last year (for FY14)
1 VFA 1310 screened OP-T last year (for FY14)

I also know that a few of those in the 54 from this year are also planning to resign -- there was no OPT-in to the DH screen board this year, so everyone regardless of intentions, was eligible to be selected.

I'll let y'all parse through the number and draw your own conclusions...referencing previous retention discussions. I don't know if they selected fewer folks this year...or had fewer folks to choose from. Nor do I know how many people actually are needed each FY to fill the required billets. But selecting 20 percent fewer one year over the previous is telling...even if I dont know what its telling!

Statutory boards don't get any input from communities as to what is desirable; eg level 4 tactical quals, NI, FCP, LSO. They only look things that Big Navy likes such as number of EPs, etc. also, the results are close hold until they're released. It would seem to me that PERS-43 has taken a gamble if they screened guys that are 1xFOS. Since the DH board was after the O4 board there'd be no way to include that in the statutory results. Also, AZ rates are usually very low (read minuscule). So odds are that a guy who was 1xFOS will then be 2xFOS for O4 and will then be shown the door and that community will be short a DH.

 

[lowflier03]

While most of this discussion is fixed wing focused, I know of a few rotary guys who chose to submit their papers rather than be considered for the DH board.

 

[smittyrunr]

Really? I thought you had to have been selected for O-4 to be in the running for DH.

From the DH board convening order, "The group of "In-Zone" (IZ) officers receiving their first look for Aviation Department Head on the FY-15 ADHSB is referred to as SG-05. SG-05 is comprised of those Aviation Unrestricted Line (URL) Officers selected for promotion to lieutenant commander by the FY-14 Active-Duty Navy Lieutenant Commander Line Promotion Selection Board."

So, in order to be considered for DH this year, you had to have selected for O-4 last year. That same timing does not hold true for O-5 and Command, in recent years guys have been up for their first looks at O-5 and Command in the same year, thus the chance that you could be selected for Command but then not make O-5.

My comment referred to a guy who failed to make O-4 on his first look in 2012, made it last year, therefore was up for his first look at DH (and was selected) this year.

 

[Pags]

From the DH board convening order, "The group of "In-Zone" (IZ) officers receiving their first look for Aviation Department Head on the FY-15 ADHSB is referred to as SG-05. SG-05 is comprised of those Aviation Unrestricted Line (URL) Officers selected for promotion to lieutenant commander by the FY-14 Active-Duty Navy Lieutenant Commander Line Promotion Selection Board."

So, in order to be considered for DH this year, you had to have selected for O-4 last year. That same timing does not hold true for O-5 and Command, in recent years guys have been up for their first looks at O-5 and Command in the same year, thus the chance that you could be selected for Command but then not make O-5.

My comment referred to a guy who failed to make O-4 on his first look in 2012, made it last year, therefore was up for his first look at DH (and was selected) this year.

There ya go. Gots to be selected O-4 to play. Disregard all my last.

 

[BOMBSonHAWKEYES]

It's really sad to see the implosion of the future of my community up close (04YG VFA), but I think everyone had known this was developing over the past 3-4 years, and now we are at or very close to the point that there will not be enough people to fill fleet DH slots (and we're not even dipping into whether or not these people are qualified - they just stuck around). While many higher ups will point to the airlines or the ops tempo as the route cause, I'm pretty sure that most of the people around me who are leaving are doing so for cultural reasons. The other excuses are just a convenient way of saying "it's out of our control".

 

[Mumbles]

2 VP dudes on the list didn't select on the first look..... I suspect that the "draft" is real..... who is still in the pool?

 

[Recovering LSO]

2 VP dudes on the list didn't select on the first look..... I suspect that the "draft" is real..... who is still in the pool?

Is VP 1310 retention in a bad way as well?

 

[Mumbles]

I honestly don't know... I've been out for a couple years. I can tell you that the guys that were being groomed in my squadron in 05-06 have all punched or went FTS.

 

[PhrogLoop]

This... from Capt. "She-boy" (great American!)
...Director, Aviation Officer Distribution (PERS 43)

He might be a great American, but his email reveals that Big Navy is still trying to apply old school solutions (EPs, bonus dollars, coercion from the Front Office) to today's exodus problem. Nowhere in the email does he reference the possibility that our decaying organizational culture might be driving great JOs out the door. I'm the first to admit that I don't have all the answers, but I have to believe that Leadership (good and bad) is an even more critical factor to JO retention than bonuses today. In business school, I learned that the #1 reason why people leave jobs and companies is BAD BOSSES. Are we to believe that we're really that different? Didn't the sneak peek of Snodgrass' Retention Survey tell us that 49% of respondents don't want their boss' job and only 39%do?!?!?!
http://www.dodretention.org/results

 

[Mumbles]

He might be a great American, but his email reveals that Big Navy is still trying to apply old school solutions (EPs, bonus dollars, coercion from the Front Office) to today's exodus problem. Nowhere in the email does he reference the possibility that our decaying organizational culture might be driving great JOs out the door. I'm the first to admit that I don't have all the answers, but I have to believe that Leadership (good and bad) is an even more critical factor to JO retention than bonuses today. In business school, I learned that the #1 reason why people leave jobs and companies is BAD BOSSES. Are we to believe that we're really that different? Didn't the sneak peek of Snodgrass' Retention Survey tell us that 49% of respondents don't want their boss' job and only 39%do?!?!?!
http://www.dodretention.org/results

agreed..... he's a company man who is trying to get a star and is in an untenable situation that is not of his making...
when HSL bubbas aren't taking the bonus, you know something has got to be royally fucked up.

 

[Brett327]

agreed..... he's a company man who is trying to get a star

It worked.