Apon checking in at TW-5 (in mid April) we were told by the student control officer a likely minimum of 18 weeks to start ground school and that the pool of students waiting for primary would grow by 200 during the summer becoming some 400 between all services.
In fact we've gotten so big that the whole of the pools (students waiting for primary and advanced) have been formed into a platoon and squad system to make it possible to organize anything. Now the only time we gather as a whole pool is for the weekly safety brief on Friday's. Typically the wing Deputy Commodore, a Marine Colonel, comes in and does the typical safety thing in addition to trying his best to keep us informed. Last week he explained that the ever slower pace of primary was due to an inability to reliably obtain just one part for the T-6 and that it had become such a problem they the SECNAV and SECAF held a meeting with the companies in the supply chain to figure it out. One of these days I may wonder into maintenance control and see if I can find out more just for kicks.
At the same time it seems that Marine students are getting a larger share of seats. The usual suspects including weather and others keep the pace low too.
Today is actually 2 months since I checked in and its laughable that I'll start before August, Maybe September. However life in the pool is what you make it, the watches are spread so thin that they're barely an annoyance, MWF musters with Wednesday being "PT" and TTH are phone musters. The only time we see any staff is on friday.
The new system allows for leave during the first two months of waiting then only if it's really important during the second two months to keep people around for watches and ready to class up if need be. Up to three weeks of leave at a time is being approved pretty easily, assuming you have that much to spend and a few days in reserve for delays/emergencies.
Even when anyone gets started if there isn't a seat in the next phase of training, sims/groundschool/any portion of flying, you just hold until a spot opens up and do refresher sims/flights once a week. Meaning groundschool isn't a greenlight for smooth sailing.
@Meyerkord that's what I've seen and heard so far...