NROTC vs OCS-Nuke draft Odds

[WannabeActual]

As a 3/C NROTC MIDN getting ready to start my 2nd year of college and commit to the ROTC program, I'm in a bit of a bind right now. At CORTRAMID, I heard quite a few officers say that as a Mech E with a good GPA, the odds that I'm going to get nuke drafted are very high.
When I got back to my unit, and started asking the staff about how mandatory nuke works, and was assured that so long as I stayed at or near the top of my class, I would definitely get what I wanted(Aviation). Since I have a second full ride scholarship, I'm only getting about $7,000 worth of benefits from NROTC per year. This means that I could drop and go OCS with a guaranteed air contract by working part time pretty easily.
So what exactly are the odds and factors that go into a mandatory nuke service assignment?
My Stats
GPA-3.5 and climbing
PT-"Excellent"
ASTB-8 7 6 63
In good standing with the unit
TLDR-I have another scholarship, don't need NROTC, really want to go Aviation(lifelong dream etc.)-my unit tells me not to sweat getting nuke drafted as long as I stay where I am or better. Am I getting too worked up about the nuke draft or should I drop and try to pick up an OCS Air Contract?
Thanks in advance for your help.

 

[Chud]

First of all, have you discussed this with your NROTC advisor? Or are you listening to scuttlebutt. If the first, congratulations. If the second, shame on you.
The Navy does not like drafting Nukes, so it comes down to how many of your (national) classmates want to go nuke, meet the requirements and pass the interview. If there are plenty, then no draft.
There is no "definite" anything here, aviation or otherwise. That included a definite aviation spot through NROTC, or to OCS either ( you haven't graduated yet, and have a lot of credits to get there) Bottom line is the better your standing nationally, the better your chance of getting your first choice. If the unit (by that I assume the staff) is telling you to not get worked up about it, listen to them. Focus on doing the best you can. Let your desires be known (humbly) and you will do fine.

 

[WannabeActual]

I have discussed this with my advisers and was told that they thought I would get what I wanted, however I didn't quite feel like they were giving me a truly unbiased take. I definitely felt like I was being pressured, which I understand is their job, but they came on very strong and seemed to think that this was a terrible reason to be considering dropping. Especially after reading some older horror story threads on this site, I am a little leery of committing to service assignment when I don't necessarily have to get through college. I understand that the Needs of the Navy always take precedence, but since the Navy is not paying close the full value of my NROTC scholarship, can't help but think that maybe trying for a guaranteed OCS Air Contract might be a smarter way to get where I want to go.
Thanks for the reply-just trying to get some more information to make the best decision for myself and for the Navy.

 

[FormerRecruitingGuru]

As a 3/C NROTC MIDN getting ready to start my 2nd year of college and commit to the ROTC program, I'm in a bit of a bind right now. At CORTRAMID, I heard quite a few officers say that as a Mech E with a good GPA, the odds that I'm going to get nuke drafted are very high.
When I got back to my unit, and started asking the staff about how mandatory nuke works, and was assured that so long as I stayed at or near the top of my class, I would definitely get what I wanted(Aviation). Since I have a second full ride scholarship, I'm only getting about $7,000 worth of benefits from NROTC per year. This means that I could drop and go OCS with a guaranteed air contract by working part time pretty easily.
So what exactly are the odds and factors that go into a mandatory nuke service assignment?
My Stats
GPA-3.5 and climbing
PT-"Excellent"
ASTB-8 7 6 63
In good standing with the unit
TLDR-I have another scholarship, don't need NROTC, really want to go Aviation(lifelong dream etc.)-my unit tells me not to sweat getting nuke drafted as long as I stay where I am or better. Am I getting too worked up about the nuke draft or should I drop and try to pick up an OCS Air Contract?
Thanks in advance for your help.

So what if you don't pass a physical?

 

[WannabeActual]

So what if you don't pass a physical?

Then I'm probably SOL for NROTC, not for OCS. My understanding was that it is very similar to the class 1 FAA physical, which I have passed. Thanks for pointing that out, I can't say I had considered that.

 

[FormerRecruitingGuru]

Then I'm probably SOL for NROTC, not for OCS. My understanding was that it is very similar to the class 1 FAA physical, which I have passed. Thanks for pointing that out, I can't say I had considered that.

No, its the same physical. Its a serious thought you need to have. If you don't pass and you're NPQ for 1390/1370 I hope you're ready to step it up in another community.

 

[WannabeActual]

No, its the same physical. Its a serious thought you need to have. If you don't pass and you're NPQ for 1390/1370 I hope you're ready to step it up in another community.

Absolutely, I understand that if I am committed going to another community in case of NPQ is part of the deal and if it comes to that I'm prepared to deal with it. I meant that for an OCS Air Contract if was NPQ'd for Aviation I would not, at least as I understand it, commission. Thanks for the response

 

[Flash]

Just curious for the recruiters, how would an NROTC dropout look to you all as an OCS applicant? On the outside looking in I would want to hear a good story before I put forth effort on an applicant like that.

 

[PEPfromage]

As a former OCS guy, I understand only wanting to go into aviation. As a former NROTC instructor, I don't think there is anything wrong with that.

But...I do believe that you should sign that scholarship contract at the beginning of this fall semester if and only if you are serious about serving your country and Navy in whatever way they need.

To that end, if you think you might be an officer that will not give subs or SWO your very best effort, then I think the prudent thing to do would be to talk to the unit about that before the semester starts, to consider pursuing OCS instead, and to see what they say.

I'm not sure the statistics of how many people get drafted for nuke are truly relevant here. It's more that taxpayers are paying for your expensive education not so you can be a pilot/NFO, but so you can be whatever they need. You already get this, and I like that you're having this conversation now, and not junior year. Good luck to you.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

Just curious for the recruiters, how would an NROTC dropout look to you all as an OCS applicant? On the outside looking in I would want to hear a good story before I put forth effort on an applicant like that.

Depends, if they had not committed yet like the OP then not too bad especially if they said they had family issues that needed their attention, or if they needed to focus on school, or even if they had said that at 19 they weren't sure of what they wanted in life and thought it would be better to mature a bit.

I have had a few that were in that situation and all are now serving, had one that the AF said due to cutbacks we are releasing you from your obligation with no money owed, and they had a letter to back it up.

If they dropped due to academic, or behavior issues that is another story.

 

[azguy]

I was never "dead set" on a designator, as it sounds like you may be, but I spent my first three years of ROTC leaning pretty strongly towards being a pilot. Point being, your perspective may change in the next 2+ years before service selection.

 

[TxEagle09]

I was nuke drafted several years ago. I was the only one from my school, but I met several other students from my year group who were scooped up as well. My advice would be to stay the course with ROTC. PM me for more details if you would like. Long story short. I am not a nuke. Service "assignment" made the last semester of college more stressful then it should have been. But that's the name of the game... Needs of the navy is always the final answer.