Iran Seizes British Sailors

Gatordev · Mar 28, 2007

Not to mention...if you ever get briefed on the British "resistance" technique, they tend to not fold too easily. Not that some haven't (and not trying to judge, either way).

Cobra Commander · Mar 28, 2007

Looks like the Ayatollah has some new guests.

This smells of all the same BS that went down during the first hostage crisis in 79. Remember how those guys were treated "humanely" too.

HH-60H · Mar 28, 2007

KentL said: ↑

The letter is a fake. The British don't use an 's' instead of a 'z' in apologize. A complete amateur mistake.

"I have written a letter to the Iranian people to apologize for us entering into their waters"

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/03/28/british.letter/index.html

While I do believe this letter is a fake or at the least coerced, I believe that you are mistaken:

Raid police apologise for 'hurt'

MattWSU · Mar 29, 2007

KentL said: ↑

The British don't use an 's' instead of a 'z' in apologize. A complete amateur mistake.

"I have written a letter to the Iranian people to apologize for us entering into their waters"

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/03/28/british.letter/index.html

What am I missing here? The letter is written with a 'z' in apologize.

Cate · Mar 29, 2007

I think he just got his letters mixed up. If he'd said, say, "The British use an 's' instead of a 'z' in apologise," he would have been accurate, and that fact may call into question the validity of the letter. Not that it would be hard to question, seeing as how it came from a member of the British military in the custody of the Iranian government.

Flash · Mar 29, 2007

Fly Navy said: ↑

What many have failed to see is that Ahmadinejad is a smart man. For one, he's run CIRCLES around us in the diplomatic arena. He's missing some men, and so happen to capture some Brits. Will that make him lose face? Maybe. But if he treats these Brits well, takes care of them, etc... the point is, they're not as isolated and nuts as North Korea.

Are you sure he is that smart? I would argue it is because we have not been that smart........

Kickflip89 · Mar 29, 2007

This is starting to get annoying.

Now they are saying Brittan's words and actions are causing delays in releasing the sailors, and they've apparently forged another letter from the woman sailor to Parliament asking Brattain to pull its troops from Iraq.

BrandonJ1780 · Mar 29, 2007

Taken from Kickflip's link:
Removed text due to copyright protection - HJ

Fine. Evidently the "wrong behavior of those who live in Teheran" ultimately resulted in US troops rounding up some 300 Iranian agents in Iraq, and some are singing like canaries. This link has my favorite quote from Gen. Petreaus to date:
http://pajamasmedia.com/2007/03/us_holds_300_prisoners_linked.php

EM1 · Apr 2, 2007

I'm not speaking from experience as a POW or anything, and I think its hard to put yourself in the situation, but is anyone else surprised that they've gotten 4 "confessions" this early? Does article V of the code of conduct strike a chord with anyone? I have no doubt their situation sucks, but people have done a very good job of resisting captors in wars past, and I can only hope that they realize how their statements (coerced or not) are not improving their situation. Just my thoughts.

raptor10 · Apr 2, 2007

http://www.ncobrief.com/index.php/archives/resist-by-all-means-available/

zippy · Apr 2, 2007

EM1 said: ↑

I'm not speaking from experience as a POW or anything, and I think its hard to put yourself in the situation, but is anyone else surprised that they've gotten 4 "confessions" this early? Does article V of the code of conduct strike a chord with anyone? I have no doubt their situation sucks, but people have done a very good job of resisting captors in wars past, and I can only hope that they realize how their statements (coerced or not) are not improving their situation. Just my thoughts.

We shouldn't take any publicly released info allegedly coming from the captives at face value. Iran has an agenda it is pursuing and is using this as propaganda to get closer to successfully reaching it.

Even if these alleged confessions came from the captives, there are too many x factors for any of us sit here and judge whether or not they making the right choices in captivity including: what type of environment are they in, what threats and other exploitation techniques are being used against them? Are they Resistance trained? Since there is no declared war with Iran, what rules apply (Geneva Convention, Law of Armed conflict etc if any) to their situation and do the captives know what they are entitled to? Even if they did know, the Iranian govt still is going to do what it wants.

The best we can do is watch events unfold and hope for the safe return of the captives. Once they return there will undoubtedly be in depth debrief sessions to piece together what was really happening to them in there. After the pertinent info is gathered, judgments will be made by those who need to make them. Personally I think we'd be doing them a disservice by saying they are doing things wrong when we aren't there and don't know what they are going through.

Scotty-O · Apr 2, 2007

Flash said: ↑

Are you sure he is that smart? I would argue it is because we have not been that smart........

Mark Twain said it best...and it's as true today as it was 150 years ago:

“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on...or by idiots who really mean it.”

You be the judge...

Flash · Apr 2, 2007

BrandonJ1780 said: ↑

Taken from Kickflip's link:
Removed text due to copyright protection - HJ

Fine. Evidently the "wrong behavior of those who live in Teheran" ultimately resulted in US troops rounding up some 300 Iranian agents in Iraq, and some are singing like canaries. This link has my favorite quote from Gen. Petreaus to date:
http://pajamasmedia.com/2007/03/us_holds_300_prisoners_linked.php

I seriously doubt the veracity of that article, especially since they never define what they mean by "prisoners tied to Iran’s intelligence agencies".........

raptor10 · Apr 4, 2007

The latest Stratfor update on the situation

The British Detainees: Reading Diplomatic Signals

By George Friedman

Last week, Iranian forces captured 15 British sailors and marines in the Shatt al-Arab area, where the territorial distinction between Iraq and Iran is less than clear. The Iranians claimed the British personnel were in Iranian territory; the British denied it. The claims and counterclaims are less interesting than the fact that the Iranians clearly planned the capture: Whatever the British were doing in the area, the Iranians knew about it and had plans to do something in response. The questions are why, and why is this occurring now?

One explanation is that the British were on some sort of mission that the Iranians had to stop. A rumor circulating is that the British were involved in extracting an Iranian defector, and the Iranians were moving to block the defection. That's a possibility, but then the captured Britons hardly appeared to be operating as a covert team -- and if there was a defection under way, the secret had been blown a long time before, since the Iranians were able to amass the force used in the capture.

It seems to us that the capture of the British had less to do with any particular operation than with a more general desire on the part of the Iranians to capture the personnel and thereby create an international incident. The important issue, therefore, is why they wanted an incident, and why this particular sort.

By now, it is no secret that the Americans and Iranians are engaged in a complex negotiation that is focused on Iraq, but which also involves Iran's future nuclear capability. U.S. and Iranian officials met publicly in early March, and a further meeting is scheduled, but the most important discussions have taken place in private venues. It also is clear that there is a debate within Tehran, as well as within Washington, as to whether these talks should be going on, how the negotiations should be carried out and the role of force in the negotiations. We suspect that the capture of the British detainees had something to do with the U.S. negotiations and with internal Iranian politics.

At this point, both sides in the negotiations are trying to impress upon each other not only that they retain some options, but also that their moves cannot be easily predicted. Both want to be seen as retaining the option of surprise. The capture of the British personnel, then, should be read not so much as the trigger for an international crisis as a diplomatic signal. If either the Americans or the Iranians believed it were possible to achieve their own ideal outcomes in negotiations, either the capture or the U.S. military surge into Iraq would not have come about. The game for each now is an effort to secure an outcome that can be lived with -- not an outright victory.

U.S. Signals and Limitations

The U.S. approach to the negotiations with Iran has been multifaceted.

First, by talking simultaneously with the Sunni insurgents, the Americans clearly have been letting the Iranians know that they have not been trapped into dealing only with the Iranians or Iraqi Shia when it comes to the future of Iraq.

Second, Washington has tried to keep the Iranian nuclear issue separate from the Iraq issue. Given that none of the world's great powers truly has an interest in seeing Iran get the bomb, Washington has international backing on some aspects of the Iran nuclear issue -- and does not want that confused with the question of Iraq, where support for its position is much weaker. Washington does not want to provide the Iranians with linkage between the issues; rather, it wants to maintain its ability to extract concessions over Iraq in exchange for concessions on the nuclear issue.

Third, and most important, the U.S. leadership consistently has emphasized that it has no fear of Iran and is not constrained politically or militarily. The entire objective of the U.S. surge strategy was to demonstrate that the administration retains military options in Iraq and is capable of using them. At the same time, the United States has carefully orchestrated a campaign to let the Iranians believe that it retains military options against Iran as well -- and is considering using them. The exercises by two U.S. carrier battle groups last week had been planned for quite a while and were designed to give the Iranians pause.

Finally, the United States has moved to arrest Iranian officials who had been operating quasi-diplomatic entities in Iraq. (The Iranians said they were diplomatic and the Americans said they weren't, so we will term them "quasi.")

Rumors of imminent U.S. military action against Iran have swept the region. Totally uninformed sources around the world have been speculating for weeks about the possibility of unspecified U.S. action. The rumors suited the Bush administration perfectly. The administration wanted the Iranians to feel endangered, so as to shape the Iranian negotiating process. This has certainly been the case amid congressional action to set a deadline for a withdrawal from Iraq. If the Americans are going to withdraw, then Iran has no motivation to negotiate; it need only wait. The administration played off the congressional proposals to hint that the possibility of a forced deadline increases the pressure for the president to act quickly, rather than to wait.

The problem for the United States, however, is the issue of what sort of action it actually can take. It is in no position to undertake a ground invasion of Iran. Iran is a big country, and occupying it is beyond the capability of any force the United States could field -- at least, not without a massive increase of ground forces that would take several years to achieve, and that certainly is not under way at the moment.

The other option is an air campaign. And it is not clear that an air campaign would work. The example of Israel's failure in Lebanon last summer weighs heavily. The Israelis chose the air campaign option and failed to achieve a satisfactory outcome. The U.S. Army historically has seen the air campaign as useful only if it is followed by an effective occupation. The most successful air campaign, Desert Storm, worked in a much smaller battle-box than Iran, and was followed up by a multidivisional ground force in order to defeat the defending Iraqi force and occupy the territory. In Iran, the quantity of air power needed for an outcome similar to that in Kuwait in 1991 is substantially greater than the United States has available, and as we have said, there is no follow-on ground force capable of occupying Iran.

The Iranian Signals

The Iranians, like the Americans, also have found it necessary to demonstrate a lack of intimidation. And for Iran, capturing 15 British sailors and marines was an excellent device. First, it raised the specter in the United States of another Iranian hostage crisis, reminding Bush of how the Iranians handled Jimmy Carter in 1979. Second, it showed that Iran is not concerned about possible retaliation by either the United States or the United Kingdom -- which has no options independent of the United States and is not driving negotiations over Iraq. Finally, the fact that action was directed against the British, rather than the Americans, slightly deflected the intensity of the crisis; because Americans were not taken captive, there was less pressure for the United States to do something about it.

But there is another dimension to this. The Iranians have shifted the spotlight away from Baghdad and to the southern region of Iraq -- to the area dominated by Shia and held by the British. The capture of the British personnel coincided with some fighting in the Basra area among Shiite militias.

In this way, the Iranians have sent two signals.

The first was that while the United States is concentrating its forces in Baghdad and Anbar province, Iran remains perfectly capable of whipping up a crisis in the relatively quiet south -- where U.S. troops are not present and where the British, who already have established a timeline for withdrawal, might not have sufficient force to contain a crisis. If the United States had to inject forces into the south at this point, they would have to come from other regions of Iraq or from the already strained reserve forces in the United States. The Iranians are indicating that they can create some serious political and military problems for the United States if Washington becomes aggressive.

The second is a statement about the negotiations over Iraq. While they are interested in reaching a comprehensive settlement over Iraq, the Iranians are prepared to contemplate another outcome, in which Iraq fragments into regional entities and the Iranians dominate the Shiite south. In some ways, this is more than an acceptable alternative. For one thing, in holding the south, the Iranians would be in a position to impede or cut U.S. lines of supply running from Kuwait to central Iraq. Second, their forces would be in a position to bring pressure to bear on Saudi Arabia, unless the United States were to redeploy troops.

In other words, the shift of attention to the south poses a worrisome military challenge to the Americans. If the Iranians or Shia were to get aggressive in the south, the United States could be forced to spread its troops even thinner, leaving operations in the north severely weakened. The maneuver could help to collapse the Americans' position in Iraq by overloading them with responsibilities.

Call, Raise -- Draw?

The Iranians have called the American hand and raised the stakes. Where the United States has been trying to generate a sense of danger on the part of Iran with rumors of airstrikes, the Iranians have signaled that they aren't worried about the airstrikes -- and then raised the American bet by forcing the United States to consider what its options might be if all hell broke loose in southern Iraq. Tehran is saying that it has more credible options than Washington does.

There is obviously a political debate going on inside Iran. As we have argued, there is deep consensus among Iranian leaders as to what outcome they want, but there is a faction led by older leaders, like Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, that does not underestimate the resources of the United States. And there is a faction that argues that the United States, at its weakest, must be pressured until it capitulates. The capture of the British personnel could have been designed to enhance the power of the more aggressive faction. But because Iranian politics are opaque, it could be argued just as logically that the capture was designed to enhance Rafsanjani's position by setting up a game of "good cop, bad cop." In other words, Rafsanjani now can ask for concessions from the Americans to keep the other faction from going too far.

Whatever the inner workings of the Iranian elite, the move strengthens Iran's negotiating position in a number of ways.

By holding the British captives, the Iranians are also trying to show the limits of Anglo-American power to their own public. One of the motives behind the capture was to demonstrate to Iranians that the Americans are incapable of taking action against Iran. (The British were less important in this context because they never were viewed by Tehran as being capable of or interested in decisive action against Iran.) The capture of the detainees, then, solidifies Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's position by revealing American weakness. If the United States and the United Kingdom don't rescue the prisoners and don't take other military action, holding the detainees increases the credibility of the Iranian leadership -- not only in relation to the Americans, but also with the Iranian public.

The logic here would call for a rescue attempt. However, in order for the captives to be rescued, the following elements are required:

1. Intelligence on the captives' location must be perfect, to the point of providing information on their precise housing.

2. The hostages cannot be housed in multiple locations; otherwise, the operation becomes both more complicated and more likely to fail, unless timing is perfect.

3. There must be time to rehearse the extraction, during which the prisoners must not be moved.

4. There must be a light covering force protecting the direct guards. The involvement of heavily armed, trained and dispersed troops at the battalion level and above, equipped with anti-aircraft systems, makes a successful extraction very unlikely.

The Iranians are old hands at this game. We can assume that they have:

1. Obfuscated the location of the British by communications deception and other means, while moving the detainees around.

2. Separated the detainees into at least three groups, one very small and remote from the other two.

3. Obscured the sites where the British are being held, in order to make model construction and rehearsals impossible.

4. Covered the detainees with an interior group of guards embedded in a multi-brigade matrix, with heavy anti-aircraft artillery and surface-to-air missile concentrations. Preparatory airstrikes by American or British forces would give away the extraction and force an abort.

That leaves the United States with the option of either accepting the status quo or initiating air operations against Iran. Now, the Iranian countermove -- creating chaos in southern Iraq -- seems daunting, but the Iranians might not have the influence in the region they would like others to believe: The Iraqi Shia are highly fragmented. But on the other hand, the Iranians do not have to impose a stable regime in southern Iraq right now. All they have to do is create instability there in order to weaken the Americans.

It comes down to the question of how lucky the U.S. leadership is feeling at the moment. Given past performance, we'd say George W. Bush is not a lucky man. If it can go wrong, it does go wrong for him. Symbolic airstrikes against Iran are conceivable, but an extended air campaign designed to smash Iran's infrastructure simply does not appear to us as a viable military option. Given Iran's size, the number of sorties designed to make a dent would be enormous. The Americans would be banking on frightening the Iranians into negotiation. Air power did that in Kosovo, against a country fighting for a peripheral interest. In Vietnam, it failed. Iran seems more like Vietnam than Serbia.

Therefore, we expect the United States to signal military action against Iran but not take it. We also expect the private talks between Iran and the United States to proceed with some sobriety. The Iranians know they have a weaker hand than it appears. Taking 15 captives is, in the end, not all that impressive by itself, and the rest hasn't played out yet. Thus, the saber-rattling will continue. That's what negotiations look like in the Middle East.

Distribution and Reprints

This report may be distributed or republished with attribution to Strategic Forecasting, Inc. at www.stratfor.com. For media requests, partnership opportunities, or commercial distribution or republication, please contact pr@stratfor.com.

BrandonJ1780 · Apr 4, 2007

British hostages being released today, CNN is showing each of them meeting Ahmadinejad; he's shaking their hands, whispering sweet nothings into their ears...Bully for the Brits.

HueyCobra8151 · Apr 4, 2007

I just about broke my TV set watching the latest news.

Mahmoud is calling it an "Eastern Gift to Britain."

England is already thanking him...wtfo? Thanking him for what exactly?

MasterBates · Apr 4, 2007

He should be thanking Britan for NOT bombing them..

WTF?

Afterburner76 · Apr 4, 2007

How about we send over 3 new hostages? one from Britain, one from Greece, and one Pakistani American? http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,263927,00.html

Lawman · Apr 4, 2007

MasterBates said: ↑

He should be thanking Britan for NOT bombing them..

WTF?

15 Hours of crap being blown up in your country damaging your infastructure and creating chaos both with your economy and political hold on the people. I figured an hour for each of the Sailors and Marines taken captive sends a clear diplomatic message to the rest of the world that this is direct retribution for a criminal act of state sponcered piracy. And it provides its own timeline to end which keeps the economic fallout of such an attack to a minimum.

ProwlerPilot · Apr 5, 2007

Does anyone else find the behavior of the British captives unprofessional? Obviously I'm not there, and I don't know if they have had any resistance training, however, anyone who is in a military and operating in the gulf has to at least be aware of the tensions with Iran. It does not appear there is any physical abuse, and I don't think I would go on TV confessing my country is wrong. Even if they decided to do that for "proof of life" they are all on TV tonight high fiving in suits, shaking Abishamsa's hand (however you spell that dude's name) and acting like idiots.:icon_rage Have some military bearing and don't give the Iranians the image of being the "good guys!" Seriously, I hope none of us would act like that in that situation. Maybe we need to send the code of conduct to London!

ProwlerPilot · Apr 5, 2007

And now I see them THANKING the Iranians for "respect and taking good care of us!" If they respected the Brits, the would have told them to turn their boat around and get out of their waters. End of story. There was no "Good will" intentions by Iran. I almost put this type of behavior on the brink of treason. Unbelievable!

Brett327 · Apr 5, 2007

ProwlerPilot said: ↑

And now I see them THANKING the Iranians for "respect and taking good care of us!" If they respected the Brits, the would have told them to turn their boat around and get out of their waters. End of story. There was no "Good will" intentions by Iran. I almost put this type of behavior on the brink of treason. Unbelievable!

Two things to consider. First, these people are (for the most part) junior enlisted personnel, likely not SERE trained. Second, despite our rough past with Iran since '79, the Brits have substantially better relations with Iran than we do, to include diplomatic relations and an embassy. So, the UK's posture WRT Iran is much less belligerent than ours would be in similar circumstances. Bottom line, we don't know all the facts, so let's not all race to crucify these people who wound up in a bad situation through no fault of their own.

Brett

ProwlerPilot · Apr 5, 2007

I will agree we don't know all the details, however they still appear unprofessional as Royal Navy and Marines. Putting your "buddy" in a headlock and giving him a nougey while awaiting your release on TV is no way to act. They had to have some sort of leadership on this rhib, who I feel should have tried to keep his men and woman in line with some decorum.

Flash · Apr 5, 2007

ProwlerPilot said: ↑

Does anyone else find the behavior of the British captives unprofessional? Obviously I'm not there, and I don't know if they have had any resistance training, however, anyone who is in a military and operating in the gulf has to at least be aware of the tensions with Iran. It does not appear there is any physical abuse, and I don't think I would go on TV confessing my country is wrong. Even if they decided to do that for "proof of life" they are all on TV tonight high fiving in suits, shaking Abishamsa's hand (however you spell that dude's name) and acting like idiots.:icon_rage Have some military bearing and don't give the Iranians the image of being the "good guys!" Seriously, I hope none of us would act like that in that situation. Maybe we need to send the code of conduct to London!

A couple things that you have to be aware of.......First, they were not POW's but peacetime detainees and the rules are a lot different. Very few people on this board have had thorough training on peacetime detention, I could probably count them on one hand, (the short lesson at SERE only skims the issues) but there are many differences in comparison to wartime. There are no international laws or set procedures like there is with POW's when it comes to their treatment or what they can and cannot do. While most of our enemies have ignored these rules in the past 100 years or so they still have the weight of international community and with all of their mechanisms and procedures, they occasionally help. Along with the Code of Conduct those rules are well known and are not in dispute. Even then they have been broken, mainly under duress. You have to realize that Iran was not really breaking any 'rules' by making these people appear on TV or holding them per se since there is no state of war that exists between Britian and Iran. If the Brits actually did violate Iranian territory (which I seriously doubt, but it is a possibility) then they actually have legal standing to go after them.

Secondly, while some of the statements of the female sailor tread a gray area you have to look very closely at the statements of the two officers. Correct me if I am wrong, but they neither of them ever said that they intruded into Iranian waters but only pointed out where the Iranians said they were. Other things were caveated like saying they understand why the Iranians were mad about the 'apparent' intrusion, not that they were at fault.

Earlier, another crewman, Lt Felix Carman, told Iranian television: "To the Iranian people, I can understand why you were insulted by our apparent intrusion into your waters."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6528235.stm

You have to listen very closely to what was said, not just listen to the short blurbs they show on the tabloid news networks. From what I have seen they said what was necessary when they were put in front of the cameras. Even if they were not trained they said some things out of the playbook.

Thirdly, we have no idea what sort of conditions they were held in or what they knew about how much attention their capture garnered, in official circles or in the media. When the EP-3 crew landed in China they had no idea how much attention the incident had garnered back home. Without any of this knowledge they would want to be seen and heard as much as possible for the 'proof of life'. A couple questions that you may not have thought of: How much footage was shot? It could have been hours of filmed interrogation that they cut to a few moments. What sort of conditions were they held in and what were they told they had to do? Did they tell them they had to appear in fron of the camera in order to get food, contact with other Brits, released, etc? There may have been a concious decision on the part of the officers to appear in front of the cameras to spare most of their men. Also, they apparently seperated the woman from the group for some time, did they tell her to make statements before she could rejoin her fellow sailors and marines? Things that none of us know.

Finally, you do realize they are still in Iran, right? Until they get out of the country they are not scott free and have to still play nice. I would guess that they have even been instructed to say nice things by their superiors in order not to make things complicated. Even after they get home the British government might want them to lie low for a little bit so as not to complicate the bigger diplomatic issues and not to provoke Iran into doing another dumb thing. While Iran is making our life a bit more difficult in Iraq, it is not to the extent that many think. They could make life a lot more difficult than it already is.......a lot more difficult .

So, I would give the Brits a lot of credit for getting through this ordeal. It does not sound like, other than some dubious statements out of the female sailor, that they made no admission of fault on their part. And it does not seem like they made no other serious errors. Let the Brits deal with their guys, they are good guys and I am glad to have them on our side. If they did something wrong I have faith that they will work it out, officially or unofficially.

Unless you walk a mile in their shoes...........

Flash · Apr 5, 2007

ProwlerPilot said: ↑

And now I see them THANKING the Iranians for "respect and taking good care of us!" If they respected the Brits, the would have told them to turn their boat around and get out of their waters. End of story. There was no "Good will" intentions by Iran. I almost put this type of behavior on the brink of treason. Unbelievable!

Like I just said, do you realize they are still in Iran?

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Iran Seizes British Sailors

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Iran Seizes British Sailors

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